"I Don’t Believe Your Science, As I Believe My God" [Opinion Article]

It has become apparent, during this pandemic, that Covid-19 is not the only thing we're fighting against. Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus that this is the single most alarming issue to affect our world since the end of the Cold War (I am being generous there), there are still some who don't see this is a problem and that it's all been exaggerated.

This has led to a number of internet posts saying similar things. "We are fighting two pandemics here: Covid-19 and Stupidity" being one I've come across most, and indeed added to by suggesting Hypocrisy as a third. But while many may see this as stupidity in action, and there is an argument to be made there, seeing this as stupidity can be unhelpful.

Bear in mind that this is an opinion article, but allow me to explain.

There is a difference between stupidity on an individual level and being brainwashed by false information. Which, I would argue, is what's happening here. The difference being that, from a young age, you may not have a choice but being brainwashed by the people, and indeed the environment, around you. Without passing judgement, many religious communities in the United States and other parts of the world, do exhibit traits similar to this. There will be many people, or parents, who will make sure that only a certain kind of information comes into the household, largely information that they can maintain control of so as to dismiss any information that comes into direct confliction with their own belief system.

This does not apply to all branches of all faiths.

Though there will always be some groups within organised religion that exhibit these traits. I won't list them for two reasons. Firstly, I have friends who might read this that I do not wish to offend and, secondly, it'd take way too long to list them. Besides, I also feel that I don't need to as many people understand American culture enough to make an educated guess as to who I'm referring to.

If you do happen to belong to one of those groups, largely referred to as the 'Religious Right', I'm not writing this to disparage your belief system. You're entitled to believe what you like. I'm just putting my opinion forward and, well, if I go to hell for it so be it.

Faith in America is a very bizarre beast, but it's not overly surprising that some groups have evolved the way they have. Let's not forget that one of the main groups that made the Westward Expansion happen were the Puritans, who followed a doctrine of 'taming' and 'cultivating' indigenous populations to the word of Christ and God.

For anyone who has seen Blackadder II, you will have a vague awareness of who the Puritans were, at least a comedic characterization of them. For those who haven't, the best way I can explain that episode is that it's basically the wonderful Miriam Margolyes getting annoyed at the mention of sex and breasts until she gets drunk, at which point she wears a pair of fake breasts on her head. All while wearing a cream, conservative costume covered in crucifixes. 

This is a gross over-exaggeration, of course. Though the ideals that Miriam speaks of during the episode, the fact that thinking about sex being sinful and anything that distracts you from God is sinful, is very much based in reality. And Britain kept that tradition for a long time. As did the Americans. (Witch trials, anyone?)

It is worth pointing out that, by and large, puritanism has been in decline for a long time now. With many more liberal branches of religion coming to the fore. BUT there are still aspects of American society that still behave puritanically. And, unfortunately for anyone remotely sane, those people still get a large voice in media coverage.

It doesn't really matter what happens in society, there will always be some people interviewed on Fox News who believe it's the Devil's work and it's a sin. But let's make a couple of distinctions here. Having sex before marriage is still counted as a sin by many religious groups, especially Evangelists. But, many, accept it happens and they would choose not to partake. (Fair enough, means more for the rest of us). Homosexuality, or the existence of anyone who is even remotely attracted to the same sex or gender, is still considered an aberration by many. But, again, there are many faiths now who have become more accepting of this, they just choose not to think about it. (Unless they go on the private browser setting...)

Heavy metal being the Devil's work, however, is a unique sin. Playing Dungeons and Dragons is not something widely considered a sin by organised religion. Enjoying witch themed markets is not a sin widely accepted by modern theology. Yet there are still those who believe all these are the case. (The latter happened in the town I currently live. I live with a practicing Pagan. That was an interesting moment in time). 

But this isn't the result of stupidity, nor is it the result of poor intelligence. It's the result of poor education and a purposeful ideological difference centuries in the making. Which isn't stupid, necessarily. It's just tedious and inconvenient.

Let's be clear, fear is a powerful motivator. It always has been, and will be until the last human dies. Throughout the Middle Ages, many people were bullied into believing in the idea of Heaven and Hell so as to keep them in line when ploughing the fields for the Lords and Barons. This system remained for many years until Martin Luther really started speaking out about it and, in an act of ultimate irony, nailing the protests to wood. (How very Christian).

"But Josh", I hear you cry, "we're not in the Feudal System anymore!" Well observed. We're not. But fear is still rife. And that fear needs to be dealt with properly.

Change is scary at the best of times. But if you're in a position of influence, and you want that change removed or reversed, what do you do? You get people on side. How do you do that? Well, think of Helen Lovejoy from The Simpsons.

"WILL SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN".

The use of fear can be targeted at the most basic human instinct. Survival. And the survival of your progeny. Don't like something? Want it changed? Tell them it's coming after their children. Then you'll get many onside.

Add, with that, copious amounts of direct (and often indirect) influence from home (domino effect) and you get a counter-argument originating solely from fear parading as fact.

For all of his idiocy and bullshittery, Trump is exceptionally good at exploiting this.

I've always been of the belief that Church and State should be very much separate from one another. But, when it comes to America, it's usually a given that Church and State are very much intertwined so you have to work within that framework when you want to comment on it. But there is a distinct overlap between the people that exist on the 'Religious Right' and that are also Trump supporters. And, to be fair, those people who are both Conservative in their faith and in their politics are a good audience to aim for at election times. Because they'll be the most vocal. And, due to something called the First Amendment, they're perfectly free to do so. Except, there's something they forget.

The First Amendment gives you the right to free speech. It doesn't given you the freedom from criticism.

On a Facebook post regarding the nurse's counter-protest in Denver, Colorado by standing in front of the cars of protestors arguing for the country to re-open, I made a joke about the first amendment, to which someone wished me to contract Covid-19 and die. Although that may be harsh, she's perfectly within her rights to wish that of me. Even if it was a little cold and callous. I'm perfectly within my rights to call her a sadistic c*** but I choose not to out of respect.

Unfortunately, this all comes down to fear. Fear of change, fear of conflicting systems and the fear of being left behind. Exploit that fear, tell those in fear you'll save them and they'll give you anything you ask.

That said, there's one part of this I haven't talked about yet.

We're in a world of fear right now. Fear of the virus, fear of the future, etc. And what's always comforting in times of trouble?

God.

Faith.

So while these groups are scared (consciously or unconsciously) about anything that challenges their faith in God, this is also a potential harvest for these groups. People are scared, let's give them God!

Except it's not nearly as altruistic as that.

But what about the title of this article? Where does science come into it? I'm so glad you asked.

The quote in the title comes from an American woman named Diane Ventura is protesting in Pennsylvania against the lockdown measures. She is an American Human, she is perfectly within her right to do so. Except, she isn't just protesting about the economy. She's protesting the science behind the lockdown.

‘What do I say to the science? I say I don’t believe your science as I believe my god’, is the quote attributed to her by ITV News. The video of which can be found here: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-20/the-anti-lockdown-movement-a-very-american-protest-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/.

To give Diane some credit, she's a business owner. Her livelihood is at risk, as are many of the protestors that are out on the streets defying the science. Americans are spoon-fed that idea of success being a good job and a strong economy from a young age, as is most of Western society. But there are numerous factors here that are fanning the flames of fear.

1. Change: Americans' ways of life have changed of late due to the virus. Many find this uncomfortable. Many find it tyrannical. Many deem it unnecessary. These groups, who have almost certainly always been skeptical of many forms of science, might see this as a win for the other side, which cannot be allowed to stand. The difference is, many of these people are not afraid to die for their cause, as many have made clear.

2. Trump: Frankly, Trump doesn't care about this situation one iota. He's positioned himself against the official advice from the start, appearing to only take these measures under duress. The trusted man of these people hasn't given the order off his own back, therefore it's not official advice for them. If Trump really did do it off his own back, maybe the reaction would've been different. Maybe they'd have followed the advice instead of demonizing Democrats and Scientists instead. (Anyone else find it a little odd that Trump himself hasn't contracted this yet?)

3. Exceptionalism: This way of thinking sometimes brings with it a sense of exceptionalism. Being one of God's chosen, you'll be protected from whatever comes. Which, if you have faith, is great. But it does conflict with science. Many religious figures in the US have now died from Covid-19 which does put this into confliction. Or, at least, it should. So why hasn't it? To be fair, this is a societal flaw. "It hasn't happened to me, therefore it won't happen to me". God clearly meant for them to join Him early. Something which science doesn't seem to understand.

As time has gone on, there's always something that threatens these groups. But, again, these people are dealing with their own fears being exploited without their understanding of that being the case. So, what do you do when you're scared? You lash out. And why not lash out at the very thing that's scaring you. For years, these groups have been projecting fear onto everyone else because they are scared themselves.

This is why I take some issue with the argument that these protests are the result of 'Stupidity'. To me, it isn't. It's actually a symptom of a much larger problem.

The exploitation of fear.

It's worked for years in religion, in politics, in education, everything. It's a very easy thing to exploit. And, to be honest, one group in fear often does something that increases the fear of another, giving each other ammunition until it ends badly. They're not attacking science because it's right, but because they believe it's wrong. Because it goes against the power of God himself.

Personally, I believe that if God created every life on Earth, as is often told to us, he created scientists. But, hey, what do I know. 

So while it may look stupid, while it may sound stupid, it isn't. It's the result of a lifetime of brainwashing, installation of fear and deliberate deception. Which isn't stupid. It's actually very clever when you think about it.

But, ready? Here's the paradox...

The people that do the brainwashing know exactly what they're doing, but they grew up in those environments too. So they believe they're doing right, ergo, they don't know what they're doing. 

Crazy, right?

I don't know how to break that. I'm not an oracle with all the answers, I'm just the guy writing an opinion on what I think's going on. Should they listen to the science? Yeah, I think they should. Should they protest? Yeah, why not.

At the end of the day, they're choosing to do this. If it really is God's will to let them die from this, let it happen. Except, that's their argument. They haven't considered the people that could get infected because of them, who don't necessarily believe what they do. But, it's fine. They're going to a better place anyway.

But what they're doing isn't stupid. It's a reaction to fear. It may seem stupid, but it really isn't. 

But that's how discourse has evolved, isn't it. We're too quick to chastise people who disagree with us that we don't look deeper. We don't look deeper into what's causing that behaviour. We just see it and call it out. Like with everything in our society, we forget everything has a cause. 

So, Diane Ventura, you believe your God. I congratulate you on your faith. I don't hold any judgement on you for doing so. I only hope it serves you going forward and I hope it's a comfort to you if you unfortunately contract Covid-19 and develop complications. I hope you survive this. I expect you might think of me as a Godless heathen or something. That's fine, I've been called worse.

Everyone, regardless of your religious or political leanings, please just stay safe. No matter who dies it's a tragedy. Every death is still important to someone and it's still someone's family.

I can only hope that things change in the aftermath.

Goodnight.


DISCLAIMER:

Before someone tells me off, I am very aware that some people with Swastikas are present at these protests. Please understand, this post is about those with the God angle only. Nazis are always looking to start something. This post deals with the Religious angle only. But, even then, the same logic of the post applies.

'Santa & Shamsul' [Short Story - Explicit Language]

The sun shone brightly over the ruins of the old city. It lit up the glass skylines of old like a kaleidoscope sky of some sort. The light fragments went from place to place as the Sun travelled around the world, showing previously unnoticed artwork on the streets below. The exhibition today brought with it a few more bodies, the ones that hadn't been claimed by the wild dogs anyway, an old Vauxhall and what looked like the remains of an old Epiphone Les Paul model. The tarmac, now fading back into a distinct shade of leafy green, the only surface remnant now of what once was a bustling metropolis, in the days of old.

The man the children all called Santa sat by the river, drinking a mug of water that he'd found. He wasn't sure how long it'd been there, nor whether the water was safe. But safe was relative these days. He stared out at the clear water than ran past him. It used to be about 20 feet further away in the old days, but the banks had flooded and the water decided it liked the new pastures, so claimed them for its own. Despite the visual devastation around him, it was almost pretty and serene to watch the virgin water slither by him.

A young boy arrived and sat next to him. Not Santa's child, but a child Santa was aware of. His parents were both from Bangladesh, his hair was jet black and he was a thin, gaunt child. But, despite the loss he'd suffered already in his short decade of existence, he remained remarkably upbeat, always smiling. No pain behind his eyes, no obvious signs of trauma, just a smiling boy. 

"Good morning, Shamsul. How are you this morning?"

"I am doing well, Mr Santa. How about you?"

"Oh, I'm just enjoying my cup of tea!"

They both looked out at the river, postulating internally about what the day would bring them. Santa took another sip of his water. He knew it wasn't really tea, but he liked to pretend. Especially around Shamsul and the other children, because it gave them a slight sense of normalcy too.

"Mr Santa?"

"Yes, Shamsul?"

"Can I ask you something?"

Santa chuckled with a smile on his face.

"Shamsul, my boy, you can ask me anything you like in the whole wide world!"

Shamsul took a moment to think about how to ask such a complex question.

"How did everything get like this?"

Santa's face went from a smile to something sorrowful. He looked back to the river and sighed while he thought about how to answer.

"Well, my boy, it started with a near-miss!"

"As the new decade started, two countries were locked in a war of words. The two leaders of those were countries were both as dedicated to their own causes as the other. Both were stubborn, both projected strength, though only one was truly strong.

One of these countries were one of the most powerful on the Old Earth. The leader of it was someone many considered to be a villain, while others regarded him as a new messiah. He spoke about making that country great again, even though it held a lot of the power in the world, and often spoke out against those who believed they were trying to make society better. Anyone who criticized him were labelled as people who hated the country, and were the enemy of the people. For this, many christened him a dictator of sorts. Though, he was not nearly the worst of the leaders who had come before him. Though, he did hold people who were dictators in high esteem. It was clear to many that he wanted to be like them, and enjoy the same kind of obedience those leaders demanded. But, alas, he could not achieve this. Those who hated him would make jokes of him, claiming he had tiny limbs and a face that had a strange colour to it. To those who supported him, they believe he had been sent by God themselves to save that country from the damage previous leaders had inflicted upon it. 

The other country was, for the most part, a poor country. It sat in a region surrounded by endless wars and was, itself, a hotbed of problems. Its leader, although elected, held significant power that gave him the same powers as a dictator. Yet, there was one above him who was even more powerful. Their country was dictated by religion, though many outside of the country believed that the religion they purported to follow had been twisted by the leadership of the country to suit its own ideas about how people should be ruled. You could not speak against the leaders, or you would be put in prison. Many foreigners were jailed because they were believed to be spies. You could not embrace many things from outside of that country, and you weren't allowed to protest. Many across the world saw the leaders of this country as dictators, but they themselves believed that they had been wronged many times by the international community. They were suspicious of foreigners, and foreigners were suspicious of them.

In the first few weeks of the new decade, they fought. Mostly with words, but some use of weapons were used. And the world, for a moment, held its breath. For it did not like the idea of a new war between two nations. It's possible, or even likely, the war would've ended quickly. But the amount of death the war would bring was not something the world wished to see. Many had grown tired of seeing war, and did not wish to see any new ones starting".

Shamsul nodded.

"So, the world got like this because of a war?"

Santa chuckled.

"Not quite, Shamsul, not quite..."

"Around the same time, there was a large country in the south of the world. It was as big as some continents. But it was large, and spacious, and not many people lived in its centre. They mostly lived by the sea, so that they could spend endless hours on the beaches. They would have parties, drink alcohol, and ride boards on the waves as pastimes. But, at the same time that the near-miss was happening, there was a crisis in that country as well!"

"Did they go to war, Santa?"

"They did, in a manner of speaking. Though, not with another country. But with fire. Many fires, some started naturally and some started by people, went out of control and destroyed large parts of the country. It destroyed homes, natural habitats, and killed many animals. Millions of animals, in fact. Kangaroos, Koalas, Wombats, you name it. Many died. The human death toll was tiny compared to the amount of animals that lost everything. The humans of that country tried everything they could to put out the fires, but many of them merged and became larger fires. The humans couldn't beat it alone".

"What stopped them?"

"The humans stopped some, but then the rains came".

"Rain?"

"Yes. Humble rain fell and put a lot of them out. But the country was never the same again".

"Were there any other fires like that?"

"Oh, yes. There were fires that tore through the largest rain forest on the planet. Though, unfortunately for the rain forest in question, people largely forgot about it. They were too distracted by their everyday lives to care much for what was happening millions of miles away. Though, the leader of that country denying anything was wrong didn't help the rain forest either".

"So...we got to this point because of a fire?"

Santa sighed.

"Not quite there yet, Shamsul..."

"At the same time, something was happening in the Far East. At the start of the decade, many people in the Far East had fallen ill with a mysterious new illness no-one had seen before. It affected the lungs and, in many cases, it killed the host. It was a virus that could go from person to person so easily. And it didn't present any symptoms for nearly 14 days. As a result, it spread like fire around the Far East. And then, to nearby countries. Until, eventually, it touched every corner of the globe, killing thousands in its wake. Many countries decided to close their borders, stop people from seeing each other, close down life. Others didn't. Some even tried to deny its existence. Claimed it had been made on purpose by the Far East, or that it was being carried through radio signals. But it was just a humble virus. But not like the flu or the common cold. But, regardless, it made the Earth stand still. And some said the world itself shook with fear at the virus".

"A virus stopped the world?"

"More or less. It was so easily passed on that anyone could catch it. And it killed indiscriminately. If you happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, it would kill you. They say many healthy people lost their lives to the modern plague. As the months wore on, and the death toll rose, many gathered together in an effort to defeat the virus. Many world leaders compared the event to a war, and that everyone needed to unite in order to defeat it. Many people alive at that time hadn't fought in a war, and this was the closest at that stage they would get to one. But people still died. The death toll rose and rose. Countries didn't work together as well as they could've, with many under-estimating the severity of the threat. As a result, the virus came in waves. The first wave was the one easily handled. But then, it evolved. It became more deadly, and more difficult to contain. Until, eventually, it killed millions.

"Is THAT why we're here, Santa? Because of the virus?"

Santa sighed again.

"Not quite, Shamsul. Not quite".

"Eventually, when the virus was stopped, and the world started to recover, there was another problem to deal with. Four years of recovery couldn't prepare the world for what happened next".

"What DID happen next, Santa?"

A siren was heard in the distance. Not the siren you'd hear from an ambulance, police car or fire engine, no. This was a much more sinister siren. The sound reverberated through the empty streets of the once huge metropolis, and Santa heard it crystal clear. He stood up and looked around, keeping watch the entire time.

"Shamsul, you need to get back to the group. Tell them there's another attack coming. Tell them to stay in the station until they hear the other siren, ok!"

"But, Santa, what about you?"

"GO, SHAMSUL, GO!"

Shamsul went to run away. However, for a moment, he turned to Santa once again.

"Santa?"

Santa turned to him. He still looked alert, but he took a moment to hide his anxiety and state of readiness for the young boy he came to know and love in the years since the start. Shamsul hid a tear as he asked his final question.

"Is THIS why we're here now?"

With a sad smile, Santa looked Shamsul in the eye and nodded.

"It's amazing if you think about it, Shamsul..."

"What's that, Santa?"

"It's amazing how time unfolds...Now go! Run!"

Shamsul did what was asked of him, running away as fast as he could to safety.

Shamsul ran back to the group. A broken sign hung off the wall by the escalator. He looked at it briefly and wondered if he would ever find out what "Waterloo" meant. He came to the conclusion that it was unlikely, and wished he'd asked Santa while he had the chance. He had already come to terms with the idea that he may never see Santa again. Santa was the kindest man he'd ever known, apart from his Dad, but he didn't remember his Dad. So he held Santa in the same esteem.

The platform was bustling with people as Shamsul ran down it back to his mother.

"There's another attack! Santa said we need to wait here until we can hear another siren!"

Everyone assumed the attack position. This was to sit down, stay quiet and keep an ear out for what was happening on the surface. They were used to attacks, but it was still a scary event to endure. The tension in the room was tangible, and Shamsul hated it. He hated having to listen to the bombs dropping over them. Especially when it was over them. But this time was different. All he kept thinking about was whether Santa had got to safety or not. Had Santa made it back in time before the bombs started dropping? He was an old man now, it's possible that he tripped or something. Or maybe he hurt himself getting back up? It was too much for Shamsul to bear thinking about.

THUD.

A bomb dropped directly above them. Dust and plaster from the ceiling fell onto the people below to some tiny outbursts of surprise and panic. Shamsul still kept dutiful watch though. He kept an eye out for Santa. In his mind, he begged and prayed to any God that would listen to let Santa live, let Santa come back to him.

But it was no use.

No old man returned during the raid, like he usually did.

No old man could be seen along the platform. Except for Mr Rogers, who wasn't very nice and often referred to Shamsul as a 'fucking Paki'.

No old man came to him and told him everything was fine.

Just the dust from the ceiling.

The barrage continued. Shamsul looked up to his Mum and, again, tried to hide a tear. Shamsul's mum noticed.

"What is it, Shamsul?"

Shamsul looked up at her and smiled sadly.

"It's amazing if you think about it, Mumma...How time unfolds..."

Covid-19: What Next? (OPINIONS)

Not to put too fine a point on it, but we're nowhere near near the finish line for this pandemic. It's already altered life as we know it. You could argue that, for however long this lasts, this is the end of the world as we know it. Now, I'm not a seer, I'm not a prophet, and I'm no Nostradamus. But I have a few predictions for what *could* happen once this pandemic is over. (If it ever is over!) Some are positive, some aren't. Some are personal, some are more wide-reaching. Well, just have a read and see, huh?

I've divided them into three categories, 'Likelies', 'Possibles' and 'Unliklies'. Just to separate them. I think these are rather self-explanatory. Feel free to comment with your ow predictions in these veins, I'd be interested to know what you think. There may even be a prediction I've missed entirely!

LIKELIES

Wetherspoons.

Look, I'm in my 20s and a former student. I LOVE Wetherspoons. It's cheap, cheerful and I find it to be pretty good. I've always had a good meal in Wetherspoons. Now, I disagree wholeheartedly with the politics of it's boss, Tim Martin. I found it tricky when he put Leave beer-mats in the pubs during the 2016 EU Referendum, but I still went to Wetherspoons. However, given how he's treated his staff during the Covid-19 crisis, I cannot in good conscience bring myself to contribute to his profits. The fact he's told all of his staff that they will be unpaid during the pubs' closures during the Coronavirus outbreak, and told them to go to Tescos instead, is not only callous and demeaning but it's also frankly inhumane. 

I've been in Wetherspoons when staff have had to break up fights over pints before and they have to put up with an awful lot, they deserve full pay during the lockdown. But no. So you won't see me in a Wetherspoons until Tim Martin has left the company. Which saddens me as I love their burger range. And their Vegan burger was amazing too. But, I can't bring myself to contribute to that twat's lifestyle.

A cheap double Jim Beam and lemonade, for me, just isn't worth the moral weight that drink carries with it.



Political Ideologies.

In the UK, and in many countries, there have been Conservative Governments that have introduced stimulus packages for the economy that, it could be argued, has its roots in socialism. On top of that, many of the social restriction measures being used to enforce social distancing (and indeed the measures being granted to police in many countries to enforce the rules) is authoritarian, even if in reminiscence. We're seeing a fundamental shift in politics for the time being. It won't last forever, but it may present a few interesting talking points once we're out of the pandemic. Firstly, which ones worked? Secondly, which one did people like most? Thirdly, has this influenced a new public appetite? In the UK, was Corbyn right? In America, are people sick of Trump's fragrant disregard for science? In Italy, did the Government there do a good enough job under what is, frankly, impossible circumstances?

During the initial clearing of dust, we may have a societal discussion about which ideology fared best during this period. I'm not suggesting that Britain will become socialist or Italy may slide into another dictatorship, but I reckon there will be a real discussion socially about which way of governing is the most effective, the most resilient and the most popular. I wouldn't be surprised if certain countries across Europe do have dramatic swings in another direction, but I wouldn't expect one in the UK, France, Ireland or Germany any time soon.

Though, be wary if any countries end up in a vacuum. That's how extremists get into power by and large.



Boris Johnson.

Depending on which paper you read, it seems that there is a general consensus across European leaders that Boris Johnson's Coronavirus strategy has been awful. Now, I personally wouldn't want to be in his position right now and, on the face of it, he appears to be listening to the science. That said, some decisions can be argued to be awful or, as one person on my Facebook put it, "unforgivable". 

Many people have criticized Johnson, as well as praised him. It's fair to say that, once it's all over, the review of Johnson's actions will be a major trial in the court of public opinion. But, make no mistake, the outcome of that will influence the next chapter of British politics, whatever the outcome of that review. 

Margaret Thatcher's 1983 victory has been attributed, in part, to the way she handled the Falklands War in 1982. And there's an old adage about how wars win votes. Well, this is Boris Johnson's war. And, if it's handled well and dealt with quickly, this could help him get re-elected in 2024 (should he still be in power by that point). Alternatively, this could damn him to the history books forever. The Tony Blair premiership has been dominated by the mess that was the Iraq War. It is possible that, in future, people may look at Johnson's strategy in a similar way. A complete mishandling of what is, and will be, a very important policy obstacle.

Make of that what you will. Johnson and his Government WILL be put under the microscope once this is over. Though this might be overlooked once Brexit negotiations restart in earnest.



Creativity In Isolation.

The British Invasion in the 1960s was a period of time where British music became hugely popular in the mainstream charts across the world. (I'm looking at you, Beatles and Stones). But, since then, Britain has enjoyed a lot of popularity in many different parts of arts and culture. 

But with a lot of creative types in isolation for prolonged periods, and God forbid any near death experiences, we may see a renewed explosion of British creativity. As far as I'm concerned, we were already on the brink of one, but I reckon this isolation and difficult period could invigorate creativity in a major way.

Assume this happens globally too and we may be in for a new creative renaissance. Which would be brilliant. And, hey, it could define the music of this decade. Anyone for a return to more organic or experimental-style music?

Anything 70s based would suit me.

But I'm also talking visual art. There could be new movements started like in the days of old, where like-minded modern Bohemians meet up in bars in Vienna or Geneva and create a whole new art explosion!

(Who am I kidding, it'll be on Google Hangout).



Not a lot will change.

One of the most depressing predictions. But self-explanatory. We change for a time, decide we liked it how it was, and go back to how everything was before. Of course there will be some changes due to the nature of the situation we currently find ourselves in. But, by and large, we could just snap back to how we were. Brexit will take priority again and we'll just act like this didn't really happen.

Pessimistically, this is the most likely to occur. Optimistically, it's the least likely. Find your niche.

Not a lot else to say on this one.



International Economic Crash, Subsequent Depression and Political Extremes.

When I asked for predictions on Facebook, this was one that caught my attention. (Thank you, Verity). Quite a few people alluded to the stimulus packages being presented by the Governments of numerous countries causing a huge economic downturn that could cause a depression that would rival the 1930s. A global economic downturn has already been predicted by many economists and, to be fair, that is likely. I certainly have commented privately that Sunak's policies will cause a downturn further on in the decade but a Depression? It might not be completely out of the realms of possibility.

As another friend of mine (Thomas) pointed out, many people defaulting on mortgage payments or rent payments could cause a fluctuation in the housing market. Sunak's proposals also could, if not backed up, cause a recession that could have a knock on effect across the world, like in 2008. Only this would be a harder downturn compared.

An economic downturn is very likely regardless. How bad it is depends on the reactions of individual Governments. To be fair, that's a far scarier prospect.

Referring back to the second likely for a moment (political ideology), the last global depression helped give rise to the Nazis in Germany, the Military empire of Japan and the consolidation of the Fascisti in Italy. Given how we're already seeing a disturbing rise in leaders who seem to display similar characteristics, it's not unreasonable to speculate that a similar event could mirror the 1930s in this scenario.

One friend (Lerryn) suggested that a whole new world war could start over the treatment of China if the world decides to blame China for the spread and subsequent response. I'm skeptical about a world war but, given Trump's decision to call it 'the Chinese Virus', that might not be out of the realm of possibility.

POSSIBLES

The Background.

To be fair, Covid-19 may never go away. This illness might continue to exist but in a smaller capacity to where it is now. This will become more likely as a vaccine evolves and becomes more widely deployed. Seeing as SARS hasn't been eradicated, nor has MERS, it seems odd if Covid-19 does too. It'll be one of those viruses that will always be lurking in the background. 

Until it isn't. 

For whatever reason.



The Climate Emergency 2: Solar-Electric Boogaloo.

With evidence that the pollution over locked down countries is starting to lower in the face of the Coronavirus pandemic, we're presented with an interesting thought exercise. We've seen many different natural events during this, including monkeys running amok in Thailand, dolphins returning to the canals of Venice and deer running freely in locked down parts of Japan. The question is this: can we sustain this? As a self-identified Green thinker, I say yes! And it should be sustained. But, practically, these are unique times we're living in. And these events have occurred due to a specific set of circumstances happening in tandem. But once this is over, there's no reason to suggest that we couldn't embrace already existing ideas and develop them into a reality. We put man on the moon for goodness sake.

The fact that, so far and on the face of it, this event has been a Godsend for nature, it might make people take the idea of the climate emergency much more seriously. The fact that the Earth can heal itself in ways perhaps before unseen is incredible. And we still have some time to stop ourselves from passing the point of no return. It would, however, require an immense concerted international effort to achieve. And, perhaps, an overhaul of capitalism. But it's not an impossibility. The current restrictions on life as we know it might be an initial way in for a short period of time while we all catch up. 

But, to refer to the home working point once more, more people working remotely could reduce the need for cars per household and increase the usage of public transport per capita, which is already making steps to go greener. (Unfortunately the carbon impact of internet usage can be the uneasy swap on that but, again, this could be mitigated if looked at properly).



Donald J Trump.

Trump isn't dealing with this situation at all well. And I'm looking forward to seeing press junkets showing Trump supporters trying to explain the opposite. But, if Trump follows through on his present desire and get people back to work by Easter, and then a massive explosion of deaths and cases occur, this could put him in a really tight spot. At present, the Democrats aren't fighting on a united front. The rivalry now between Sanders and Biden could cause another voter split in the Democratic party, which could allow Trump to be re-elected. (This is what basically happened in 2016, in parts, ignoring the potential Russian interference). 

But this could be the event that changes the tide.

If cases and deaths spiral higher than current estimates, and can be attributed to Trump's actions, this could cause him real trouble and *could* cost him re-election. He's desperate to get re-elected as he's become accustomed to power. Despite the fact his first term has been, well, unorthodox in many ways (to put it politely). This is the kind of flash-point that could cost a President the confidence of the country. One can only hope this occurs to Trump as I don't want to see him re-elected. But, depending on how this plays out, this could really risk his shot at a second-term. 

How can you 'Make America Great Again' with an angry populous dealing with mass deaths?

Let's hope we never find out.



The Suicide Rate.

One thing that the current lockdowns have brought up is the idea of people in difficult situations. This includes abusive relationships, severe mental health and increased isolation. The elderly already have an issue with isolation and this could increase for the duration of the crisis, especially with the UK asking the over-70s to stay indoors for 12 weeks. But with abusive relationships and mental health, this isolation and lack of safe space could lead to an increase in a more final action. The suicide rate could increase globally. Of course, by how much depends on multiple factors. These include the number of people who have suicidal thoughts and tendencies, the ways in which Governments are providing support during the lockdown and how the society reacts as a whole to the measures being put in place.

If people aren't getting the support they need, they may feel that the most drastic way out now becomes the only option and do it. Especially with the social distancing measures put in. People in abusive relationships may also feel this way as any safe space they may have had might've been ripped from them for the duration of the lockdown. 

I don't think it'd go up to a point where it's out of control to put it bluntly, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear a large reported rise of suicides during the outbreak. Honestly? Couldn't say I blamed them either.



Remote Working/Home Education.

With the country working from home by and large now, as are many other countries, new ways of communication and creativity are going to be created during this time, which may lead some to prefer working from home. There are old stereotypes that suggest nobody who works in an office can work from home as effectively or efficiently as they would in an office. But it could lead to a wider debate about the pros and cons of working from home. This could also be influenced by a potential uptake in the desire of parents to home educate, if the circumstances allow. If some parents have a job where they can work from home and also facilitate a form of home education, then it could cause a rethink in how business and employment can be done in the 21st Century.

This could lead to an interesting uptake in people wishing to complete their work from home to try and negotiate a better work/life balance. (The science, sociology and psychology of that I'll leave for you to research. This is an opinion article, not a lecture).

It very easily couldn't in the same breath. This could put people off remote working and the prospect of home education for quite some time. (That is if people haven't actually undertaken home education properly and have, instead, just tried to imitate a state school classroom in the kitchen).

UNLIKELIES

Everything will change, forever.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, here. This is not going to tear down the current world order and we'll suddenly have a utopia. Some things are likely to be altered for good as far as we're concerned, but it's not going to be  Star Warsesque revolution that brings everything down. I've seen a few people online discuss this and, it's optimistic at best. Some things are guaranteed to change and there will be some scarring from this event that will likely never heal. But don't expect to wake up in 2021 (if it ends by then) and there'll be some kind of brave new world. However, some aspects of Planet Earth will present itself with a blank canvas and that will be up to us to decide how to print on it. But if you're expecting a whole new world with dazzling things you never knew, better stay on that magic carpet, Princess Jasmine. Sorry. 




The Ruling Class.

Again, let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's unlikely we're going to see violent bloody revolutions solely because of the virus. That would come from what happens afterward. Again, friends on Facebook talked about the prospects of civil unrest and rioting in the event of a substantial economic downturn/depression. That is easily conceivable. But don't expect Arab Spring-style protests and Governmental take-downs any time soon. Regardless of how a Government deals with the pandemic, the economic aftermath that ensues may tempt fate a little bit, but even then, people might be more measured. 

Don't expect to see Boris Johnson ceremoniously removed from Downing Street or Trump dragged through the streets of Washington following a financial crash. Not even the world of 1929 made this stark leap.

Unrest could occur from a crash/downturn/depression. But not so bad they create the United Soviet Republics of Great Britain or the USSA. In Britain, you might find similar events to the riots of 2011 following the killing of Mark Duggan. America, you may see similar scenes to LA in 1992. France...well...actually France has a terrible track record with both protests and political change so I'll let you read up on that yourself. 

Let's just say I personally don't see Macron's head being held aloft the guillotine. 

There may be shifts and swings in regions or individual companies but, let's make a few things clear regardless. (Unless something really f*****g drastic happens):

• Putin will be in charge of Russia.
• Jinping will be charge of China.
• Kim Jong-un will be in charge of North Korea
• Australia will change its PM 7 times before Christmas.

Sorry, Australia. Love you really.

Nothing Changes.

Events like this are rare. And, when they occur, they leave a lasting impact. I'm not going to sit here and compare this to the Black Death, the Plague or Spanish Flu, but these things do leave scars. So, inevitably, things are going to change in some way, shape or form. And these changes could be minor and become normal in a decade's time, or they could define this decade. Or even the century.

The 20th Century was defined largely by the two world wars and the rapid advancement of technology. We're currently in the third decade of the century and no-one knows where it'll go from here. Events like 9/11 and the 2008 Financial Crash have certainly been hugely influential in events since, but this is definitely one of the most far-reaching events this century. In the UK, this hasn't happened in any of our lifetimes. The only time that came close maybe have been World War Two. People keep comparing this to a war and, in time, that might be how it's remembered. 

Or it could become a meme. One or the other.

Either way, it's highly unlikely that NOTHING will change. Some things will have to. It could be a small change or it could be huge. And that'll vary from person to person.

Perhaps Uncle Eric caught Covid-19 and sadly died, this would be a massive change for you potentially. Or it could lead, indirectly, to a Third World War. We simply don't know. But it's highly unlikely that nothing will change as a result of what happens here.

Because those of us who are alive and able to understand our surroundings now will remember this time. It'll be indelibly marked on our memories. Which could be a good thing going forward. Perhaps this was the start of a great change in human history. Or we'll tell these days in stories to lost younglings around post-apocalyptic campfires. Who knows.

Have I missed anything? Let me know.