Not to put too fine a point on it, but we're nowhere near near the finish line for this pandemic. It's already altered life as we know it. You could argue that, for however long this lasts, this is the end of the world as we know it. Now, I'm not a seer, I'm not a prophet, and I'm no Nostradamus. But I have a few predictions for what *could* happen once this pandemic is over. (If it ever is over!) Some are positive, some aren't. Some are personal, some are more wide-reaching. Well, just have a read and see, huh?
I've divided them into three categories, 'Likelies', 'Possibles' and 'Unliklies'. Just to separate them. I think these are rather self-explanatory. Feel free to comment with your ow predictions in these veins, I'd be interested to know what you think. There may even be a prediction I've missed entirely!
Wetherspoons.
Look, I'm in my 20s and a former student. I LOVE Wetherspoons. It's cheap, cheerful and I find it to be pretty good. I've always had a good meal in Wetherspoons. Now, I disagree wholeheartedly with the politics of it's boss, Tim Martin. I found it tricky when he put Leave beer-mats in the pubs during the 2016 EU Referendum, but I still went to Wetherspoons. However, given how he's treated his staff during the Covid-19 crisis, I cannot in good conscience bring myself to contribute to his profits. The fact he's told all of his staff that they will be unpaid during the pubs' closures during the Coronavirus outbreak, and told them to go to Tescos instead, is not only callous and demeaning but it's also frankly inhumane.
I've been in Wetherspoons when staff have had to break up fights over pints before and they have to put up with an awful lot, they deserve full pay during the lockdown. But no. So you won't see me in a Wetherspoons until Tim Martin has left the company. Which saddens me as I love their burger range. And their Vegan burger was amazing too. But, I can't bring myself to contribute to that twat's lifestyle.
A cheap double Jim Beam and lemonade, for me, just isn't worth the moral weight that drink carries with it.
Political Ideologies.
In the UK, and in many countries, there have been Conservative Governments that have introduced stimulus packages for the economy that, it could be argued, has its roots in socialism. On top of that, many of the social restriction measures being used to enforce social distancing (and indeed the measures being granted to police in many countries to enforce the rules) is authoritarian, even if in reminiscence. We're seeing a fundamental shift in politics for the time being. It won't last forever, but it may present a few interesting talking points once we're out of the pandemic. Firstly, which ones worked? Secondly, which one did people like most? Thirdly, has this influenced a new public appetite? In the UK, was Corbyn right? In America, are people sick of Trump's fragrant disregard for science? In Italy, did the Government there do a good enough job under what is, frankly, impossible circumstances?
During the initial clearing of dust, we may have a societal discussion about which ideology fared best during this period. I'm not suggesting that Britain will become socialist or Italy may slide into another dictatorship, but I reckon there will be a real discussion socially about which way of governing is the most effective, the most resilient and the most popular. I wouldn't be surprised if certain countries across Europe do have dramatic swings in another direction, but I wouldn't expect one in the UK, France, Ireland or Germany any time soon.
Though, be wary if any countries end up in a vacuum. That's how extremists get into power by and large.
Boris Johnson.
Depending on which paper you read, it seems that there is a general consensus across European leaders that Boris Johnson's Coronavirus strategy has been awful. Now, I personally wouldn't want to be in his position right now and, on the face of it, he appears to be listening to the science. That said, some decisions can be argued to be awful or, as one person on my Facebook put it, "unforgivable".
Many people have criticized Johnson, as well as praised him. It's fair to say that, once it's all over, the review of Johnson's actions will be a major trial in the court of public opinion. But, make no mistake, the outcome of that will influence the next chapter of British politics, whatever the outcome of that review.
Margaret Thatcher's 1983 victory has been attributed, in part, to the way she handled the Falklands War in 1982. And there's an old adage about how wars win votes. Well, this is Boris Johnson's war. And, if it's handled well and dealt with quickly, this could help him get re-elected in 2024 (should he still be in power by that point). Alternatively, this could damn him to the history books forever. The Tony Blair premiership has been dominated by the mess that was the Iraq War. It is possible that, in future, people may look at Johnson's strategy in a similar way. A complete mishandling of what is, and will be, a very important policy obstacle.
Make of that what you will. Johnson and his Government WILL be put under the microscope once this is over. Though this might be overlooked once Brexit negotiations restart in earnest.
Creativity In Isolation.
The British Invasion in the 1960s was a period of time where British music became hugely popular in the mainstream charts across the world. (I'm looking at you, Beatles and Stones). But, since then, Britain has enjoyed a lot of popularity in many different parts of arts and culture.
But with a lot of creative types in isolation for prolonged periods, and God forbid any near death experiences, we may see a renewed explosion of British creativity. As far as I'm concerned, we were already on the brink of one, but I reckon this isolation and difficult period could invigorate creativity in a major way.
Assume this happens globally too and we may be in for a new creative renaissance. Which would be brilliant. And, hey, it could define the music of this decade. Anyone for a return to more organic or experimental-style music?
Anything 70s based would suit me.
But I'm also talking visual art. There could be new movements started like in the days of old, where like-minded modern Bohemians meet up in bars in Vienna or Geneva and create a whole new art explosion!
(Who am I kidding, it'll be on Google Hangout).
Not a lot will change.
One of the most depressing predictions. But self-explanatory. We change for a time, decide we liked it how it was, and go back to how everything was before. Of course there will be some changes due to the nature of the situation we currently find ourselves in. But, by and large, we could just snap back to how we were. Brexit will take priority again and we'll just act like this didn't really happen.
Pessimistically, this is the most likely to occur. Optimistically, it's the least likely. Find your niche.
Not a lot else to say on this one.
International Economic Crash, Subsequent Depression and Political Extremes.
When I asked for predictions on Facebook, this was one that caught my attention. (Thank you, Verity). Quite a few people alluded to the stimulus packages being presented by the Governments of numerous countries causing a huge economic downturn that could cause a depression that would rival the 1930s. A global economic downturn has already been predicted by many economists and, to be fair, that is likely. I certainly have commented privately that Sunak's policies will cause a downturn further on in the decade but a Depression? It might not be completely out of the realms of possibility.
As another friend of mine (Thomas) pointed out, many people defaulting on mortgage payments or rent payments could cause a fluctuation in the housing market. Sunak's proposals also could, if not backed up, cause a recession that could have a knock on effect across the world, like in 2008. Only this would be a harder downturn compared.
An economic downturn is very likely regardless. How bad it is depends on the reactions of individual Governments. To be fair, that's a far scarier prospect.
Referring back to the second likely for a moment (political ideology), the last global depression helped give rise to the Nazis in Germany, the Military empire of Japan and the consolidation of the Fascisti in Italy. Given how we're already seeing a disturbing rise in leaders who seem to display similar characteristics, it's not unreasonable to speculate that a similar event could mirror the 1930s in this scenario.
One friend (Lerryn) suggested that a whole new world war could start over the treatment of China if the world decides to blame China for the spread and subsequent response. I'm skeptical about a world war but, given Trump's decision to call it 'the Chinese Virus', that might not be out of the realm of possibility.
The Background.
To be fair, Covid-19 may never go away. This illness might continue to exist but in a smaller capacity to where it is now. This will become more likely as a vaccine evolves and becomes more widely deployed. Seeing as SARS hasn't been eradicated, nor has MERS, it seems odd if Covid-19 does too. It'll be one of those viruses that will always be lurking in the background.
Until it isn't.
For whatever reason.
The Climate Emergency 2: Solar-Electric Boogaloo.
With evidence that the pollution over locked down countries is starting to lower in the face of the Coronavirus pandemic, we're presented with an interesting thought exercise. We've seen many different natural events during this, including monkeys running amok in Thailand, dolphins returning to the canals of Venice and deer running freely in locked down parts of Japan. The question is this: can we sustain this? As a self-identified Green thinker, I say yes! And it should be sustained. But, practically, these are unique times we're living in. And these events have occurred due to a specific set of circumstances happening in tandem. But once this is over, there's no reason to suggest that we couldn't embrace already existing ideas and develop them into a reality. We put man on the moon for goodness sake.
The fact that, so far and on the face of it, this event has been a Godsend for nature, it might make people take the idea of the climate emergency much more seriously. The fact that the Earth can heal itself in ways perhaps before unseen is incredible. And we still have some time to stop ourselves from passing the point of no return. It would, however, require an immense concerted international effort to achieve. And, perhaps, an overhaul of capitalism. But it's not an impossibility. The current restrictions on life as we know it might be an initial way in for a short period of time while we all catch up.
But, to refer to the home working point once more, more people working remotely could reduce the need for cars per household and increase the usage of public transport per capita, which is already making steps to go greener. (Unfortunately the carbon impact of internet usage can be the uneasy swap on that but, again, this could be mitigated if looked at properly).
Donald J Trump.
Trump isn't dealing with this situation at all well. And I'm looking forward to seeing press junkets showing Trump supporters trying to explain the opposite. But, if Trump follows through on his present desire and get people back to work by Easter, and then a massive explosion of deaths and cases occur, this could put him in a really tight spot. At present, the Democrats aren't fighting on a united front. The rivalry now between Sanders and Biden could cause another voter split in the Democratic party, which could allow Trump to be re-elected. (This is what basically happened in 2016, in parts, ignoring the potential Russian interference).
But this could be the event that changes the tide.
If cases and deaths spiral higher than current estimates, and can be attributed to Trump's actions, this could cause him real trouble and *could* cost him re-election. He's desperate to get re-elected as he's become accustomed to power. Despite the fact his first term has been, well, unorthodox in many ways (to put it politely). This is the kind of flash-point that could cost a President the confidence of the country. One can only hope this occurs to Trump as I don't want to see him re-elected. But, depending on how this plays out, this could really risk his shot at a second-term.
How can you 'Make America Great Again' with an angry populous dealing with mass deaths?
Let's hope we never find out.
The Suicide Rate.
One thing that the current lockdowns have brought up is the idea of people in difficult situations. This includes abusive relationships, severe mental health and increased isolation. The elderly already have an issue with isolation and this could increase for the duration of the crisis, especially with the UK asking the over-70s to stay indoors for 12 weeks. But with abusive relationships and mental health, this isolation and lack of safe space could lead to an increase in a more final action. The suicide rate could increase globally. Of course, by how much depends on multiple factors. These include the number of people who have suicidal thoughts and tendencies, the ways in which Governments are providing support during the lockdown and how the society reacts as a whole to the measures being put in place.
If people aren't getting the support they need, they may feel that the most drastic way out now becomes the only option and do it. Especially with the social distancing measures put in. People in abusive relationships may also feel this way as any safe space they may have had might've been ripped from them for the duration of the lockdown.
I don't think it'd go up to a point where it's out of control to put it bluntly, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear a large reported rise of suicides during the outbreak. Honestly? Couldn't say I blamed them either.
Remote Working/Home Education.
With the country working from home by and large now, as are many other countries, new ways of communication and creativity are going to be created during this time, which may lead some to prefer working from home. There are old stereotypes that suggest nobody who works in an office can work from home as effectively or efficiently as they would in an office. But it could lead to a wider debate about the pros and cons of working from home. This could also be influenced by a potential uptake in the desire of parents to home educate, if the circumstances allow. If some parents have a job where they can work from home and also facilitate a form of home education, then it could cause a rethink in how business and employment can be done in the 21st Century.
This could lead to an interesting uptake in people wishing to complete their work from home to try and negotiate a better work/life balance. (The science, sociology and psychology of that I'll leave for you to research. This is an opinion article, not a lecture).
It very easily couldn't in the same breath. This could put people off remote working and the prospect of home education for quite some time. (That is if people haven't actually undertaken home education properly and have, instead, just tried to imitate a state school classroom in the kitchen).
Everything will change, forever.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, here. This is not going to tear down the current world order and we'll suddenly have a utopia. Some things are likely to be altered for good as far as we're concerned, but it's not going to be Star Warsesque revolution that brings everything down. I've seen a few people online discuss this and, it's optimistic at best. Some things are guaranteed to change and there will be some scarring from this event that will likely never heal. But don't expect to wake up in 2021 (if it ends by then) and there'll be some kind of brave new world. However, some aspects of Planet Earth will present itself with a blank canvas and that will be up to us to decide how to print on it. But if you're expecting a whole new world with dazzling things you never knew, better stay on that magic carpet, Princess Jasmine. Sorry.
The Ruling Class.
Again, let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's unlikely we're going to see violent bloody revolutions solely because of the virus. That would come from what happens afterward. Again, friends on Facebook talked about the prospects of civil unrest and rioting in the event of a substantial economic downturn/depression. That is easily conceivable. But don't expect Arab Spring-style protests and Governmental take-downs any time soon. Regardless of how a Government deals with the pandemic, the economic aftermath that ensues may tempt fate a little bit, but even then, people might be more measured.
Don't expect to see Boris Johnson ceremoniously removed from Downing Street or Trump dragged through the streets of Washington following a financial crash. Not even the world of 1929 made this stark leap.
Unrest could occur from a crash/downturn/depression. But not so bad they create the United Soviet Republics of Great Britain or the USSA. In Britain, you might find similar events to the riots of 2011 following the killing of Mark Duggan. America, you may see similar scenes to LA in 1992. France...well...actually France has a terrible track record with both protests and political change so I'll let you read up on that yourself.
Let's just say I personally don't see Macron's head being held aloft the guillotine.
There may be shifts and swings in regions or individual companies but, let's make a few things clear regardless. (Unless something really f*****g drastic happens):
I've divided them into three categories, 'Likelies', 'Possibles' and 'Unliklies'. Just to separate them. I think these are rather self-explanatory. Feel free to comment with your ow predictions in these veins, I'd be interested to know what you think. There may even be a prediction I've missed entirely!
LIKELIES
Wetherspoons.
Look, I'm in my 20s and a former student. I LOVE Wetherspoons. It's cheap, cheerful and I find it to be pretty good. I've always had a good meal in Wetherspoons. Now, I disagree wholeheartedly with the politics of it's boss, Tim Martin. I found it tricky when he put Leave beer-mats in the pubs during the 2016 EU Referendum, but I still went to Wetherspoons. However, given how he's treated his staff during the Covid-19 crisis, I cannot in good conscience bring myself to contribute to his profits. The fact he's told all of his staff that they will be unpaid during the pubs' closures during the Coronavirus outbreak, and told them to go to Tescos instead, is not only callous and demeaning but it's also frankly inhumane.
I've been in Wetherspoons when staff have had to break up fights over pints before and they have to put up with an awful lot, they deserve full pay during the lockdown. But no. So you won't see me in a Wetherspoons until Tim Martin has left the company. Which saddens me as I love their burger range. And their Vegan burger was amazing too. But, I can't bring myself to contribute to that twat's lifestyle.
A cheap double Jim Beam and lemonade, for me, just isn't worth the moral weight that drink carries with it.
Political Ideologies.
In the UK, and in many countries, there have been Conservative Governments that have introduced stimulus packages for the economy that, it could be argued, has its roots in socialism. On top of that, many of the social restriction measures being used to enforce social distancing (and indeed the measures being granted to police in many countries to enforce the rules) is authoritarian, even if in reminiscence. We're seeing a fundamental shift in politics for the time being. It won't last forever, but it may present a few interesting talking points once we're out of the pandemic. Firstly, which ones worked? Secondly, which one did people like most? Thirdly, has this influenced a new public appetite? In the UK, was Corbyn right? In America, are people sick of Trump's fragrant disregard for science? In Italy, did the Government there do a good enough job under what is, frankly, impossible circumstances?
During the initial clearing of dust, we may have a societal discussion about which ideology fared best during this period. I'm not suggesting that Britain will become socialist or Italy may slide into another dictatorship, but I reckon there will be a real discussion socially about which way of governing is the most effective, the most resilient and the most popular. I wouldn't be surprised if certain countries across Europe do have dramatic swings in another direction, but I wouldn't expect one in the UK, France, Ireland or Germany any time soon.
Though, be wary if any countries end up in a vacuum. That's how extremists get into power by and large.
Boris Johnson.
Depending on which paper you read, it seems that there is a general consensus across European leaders that Boris Johnson's Coronavirus strategy has been awful. Now, I personally wouldn't want to be in his position right now and, on the face of it, he appears to be listening to the science. That said, some decisions can be argued to be awful or, as one person on my Facebook put it, "unforgivable".
Many people have criticized Johnson, as well as praised him. It's fair to say that, once it's all over, the review of Johnson's actions will be a major trial in the court of public opinion. But, make no mistake, the outcome of that will influence the next chapter of British politics, whatever the outcome of that review.
Margaret Thatcher's 1983 victory has been attributed, in part, to the way she handled the Falklands War in 1982. And there's an old adage about how wars win votes. Well, this is Boris Johnson's war. And, if it's handled well and dealt with quickly, this could help him get re-elected in 2024 (should he still be in power by that point). Alternatively, this could damn him to the history books forever. The Tony Blair premiership has been dominated by the mess that was the Iraq War. It is possible that, in future, people may look at Johnson's strategy in a similar way. A complete mishandling of what is, and will be, a very important policy obstacle.
Make of that what you will. Johnson and his Government WILL be put under the microscope once this is over. Though this might be overlooked once Brexit negotiations restart in earnest.
Creativity In Isolation.
The British Invasion in the 1960s was a period of time where British music became hugely popular in the mainstream charts across the world. (I'm looking at you, Beatles and Stones). But, since then, Britain has enjoyed a lot of popularity in many different parts of arts and culture.
But with a lot of creative types in isolation for prolonged periods, and God forbid any near death experiences, we may see a renewed explosion of British creativity. As far as I'm concerned, we were already on the brink of one, but I reckon this isolation and difficult period could invigorate creativity in a major way.
Assume this happens globally too and we may be in for a new creative renaissance. Which would be brilliant. And, hey, it could define the music of this decade. Anyone for a return to more organic or experimental-style music?
Anything 70s based would suit me.
But I'm also talking visual art. There could be new movements started like in the days of old, where like-minded modern Bohemians meet up in bars in Vienna or Geneva and create a whole new art explosion!
(Who am I kidding, it'll be on Google Hangout).
Not a lot will change.
One of the most depressing predictions. But self-explanatory. We change for a time, decide we liked it how it was, and go back to how everything was before. Of course there will be some changes due to the nature of the situation we currently find ourselves in. But, by and large, we could just snap back to how we were. Brexit will take priority again and we'll just act like this didn't really happen.
Pessimistically, this is the most likely to occur. Optimistically, it's the least likely. Find your niche.
Not a lot else to say on this one.
International Economic Crash, Subsequent Depression and Political Extremes.
When I asked for predictions on Facebook, this was one that caught my attention. (Thank you, Verity). Quite a few people alluded to the stimulus packages being presented by the Governments of numerous countries causing a huge economic downturn that could cause a depression that would rival the 1930s. A global economic downturn has already been predicted by many economists and, to be fair, that is likely. I certainly have commented privately that Sunak's policies will cause a downturn further on in the decade but a Depression? It might not be completely out of the realms of possibility.
As another friend of mine (Thomas) pointed out, many people defaulting on mortgage payments or rent payments could cause a fluctuation in the housing market. Sunak's proposals also could, if not backed up, cause a recession that could have a knock on effect across the world, like in 2008. Only this would be a harder downturn compared.
An economic downturn is very likely regardless. How bad it is depends on the reactions of individual Governments. To be fair, that's a far scarier prospect.
Referring back to the second likely for a moment (political ideology), the last global depression helped give rise to the Nazis in Germany, the Military empire of Japan and the consolidation of the Fascisti in Italy. Given how we're already seeing a disturbing rise in leaders who seem to display similar characteristics, it's not unreasonable to speculate that a similar event could mirror the 1930s in this scenario.
One friend (Lerryn) suggested that a whole new world war could start over the treatment of China if the world decides to blame China for the spread and subsequent response. I'm skeptical about a world war but, given Trump's decision to call it 'the Chinese Virus', that might not be out of the realm of possibility.
POSSIBLES
The Background.
To be fair, Covid-19 may never go away. This illness might continue to exist but in a smaller capacity to where it is now. This will become more likely as a vaccine evolves and becomes more widely deployed. Seeing as SARS hasn't been eradicated, nor has MERS, it seems odd if Covid-19 does too. It'll be one of those viruses that will always be lurking in the background.
Until it isn't.
For whatever reason.
The Climate Emergency 2: Solar-Electric Boogaloo.
With evidence that the pollution over locked down countries is starting to lower in the face of the Coronavirus pandemic, we're presented with an interesting thought exercise. We've seen many different natural events during this, including monkeys running amok in Thailand, dolphins returning to the canals of Venice and deer running freely in locked down parts of Japan. The question is this: can we sustain this? As a self-identified Green thinker, I say yes! And it should be sustained. But, practically, these are unique times we're living in. And these events have occurred due to a specific set of circumstances happening in tandem. But once this is over, there's no reason to suggest that we couldn't embrace already existing ideas and develop them into a reality. We put man on the moon for goodness sake.
The fact that, so far and on the face of it, this event has been a Godsend for nature, it might make people take the idea of the climate emergency much more seriously. The fact that the Earth can heal itself in ways perhaps before unseen is incredible. And we still have some time to stop ourselves from passing the point of no return. It would, however, require an immense concerted international effort to achieve. And, perhaps, an overhaul of capitalism. But it's not an impossibility. The current restrictions on life as we know it might be an initial way in for a short period of time while we all catch up.
But, to refer to the home working point once more, more people working remotely could reduce the need for cars per household and increase the usage of public transport per capita, which is already making steps to go greener. (Unfortunately the carbon impact of internet usage can be the uneasy swap on that but, again, this could be mitigated if looked at properly).
Donald J Trump.
Trump isn't dealing with this situation at all well. And I'm looking forward to seeing press junkets showing Trump supporters trying to explain the opposite. But, if Trump follows through on his present desire and get people back to work by Easter, and then a massive explosion of deaths and cases occur, this could put him in a really tight spot. At present, the Democrats aren't fighting on a united front. The rivalry now between Sanders and Biden could cause another voter split in the Democratic party, which could allow Trump to be re-elected. (This is what basically happened in 2016, in parts, ignoring the potential Russian interference).
But this could be the event that changes the tide.
If cases and deaths spiral higher than current estimates, and can be attributed to Trump's actions, this could cause him real trouble and *could* cost him re-election. He's desperate to get re-elected as he's become accustomed to power. Despite the fact his first term has been, well, unorthodox in many ways (to put it politely). This is the kind of flash-point that could cost a President the confidence of the country. One can only hope this occurs to Trump as I don't want to see him re-elected. But, depending on how this plays out, this could really risk his shot at a second-term.
How can you 'Make America Great Again' with an angry populous dealing with mass deaths?
Let's hope we never find out.
The Suicide Rate.
One thing that the current lockdowns have brought up is the idea of people in difficult situations. This includes abusive relationships, severe mental health and increased isolation. The elderly already have an issue with isolation and this could increase for the duration of the crisis, especially with the UK asking the over-70s to stay indoors for 12 weeks. But with abusive relationships and mental health, this isolation and lack of safe space could lead to an increase in a more final action. The suicide rate could increase globally. Of course, by how much depends on multiple factors. These include the number of people who have suicidal thoughts and tendencies, the ways in which Governments are providing support during the lockdown and how the society reacts as a whole to the measures being put in place.
If people aren't getting the support they need, they may feel that the most drastic way out now becomes the only option and do it. Especially with the social distancing measures put in. People in abusive relationships may also feel this way as any safe space they may have had might've been ripped from them for the duration of the lockdown.
I don't think it'd go up to a point where it's out of control to put it bluntly, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear a large reported rise of suicides during the outbreak. Honestly? Couldn't say I blamed them either.
Remote Working/Home Education.
With the country working from home by and large now, as are many other countries, new ways of communication and creativity are going to be created during this time, which may lead some to prefer working from home. There are old stereotypes that suggest nobody who works in an office can work from home as effectively or efficiently as they would in an office. But it could lead to a wider debate about the pros and cons of working from home. This could also be influenced by a potential uptake in the desire of parents to home educate, if the circumstances allow. If some parents have a job where they can work from home and also facilitate a form of home education, then it could cause a rethink in how business and employment can be done in the 21st Century.
This could lead to an interesting uptake in people wishing to complete their work from home to try and negotiate a better work/life balance. (The science, sociology and psychology of that I'll leave for you to research. This is an opinion article, not a lecture).
It very easily couldn't in the same breath. This could put people off remote working and the prospect of home education for quite some time. (That is if people haven't actually undertaken home education properly and have, instead, just tried to imitate a state school classroom in the kitchen).
UNLIKELIES
Everything will change, forever.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, here. This is not going to tear down the current world order and we'll suddenly have a utopia. Some things are likely to be altered for good as far as we're concerned, but it's not going to be Star Warsesque revolution that brings everything down. I've seen a few people online discuss this and, it's optimistic at best. Some things are guaranteed to change and there will be some scarring from this event that will likely never heal. But don't expect to wake up in 2021 (if it ends by then) and there'll be some kind of brave new world. However, some aspects of Planet Earth will present itself with a blank canvas and that will be up to us to decide how to print on it. But if you're expecting a whole new world with dazzling things you never knew, better stay on that magic carpet, Princess Jasmine. Sorry.
The Ruling Class.
Again, let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's unlikely we're going to see violent bloody revolutions solely because of the virus. That would come from what happens afterward. Again, friends on Facebook talked about the prospects of civil unrest and rioting in the event of a substantial economic downturn/depression. That is easily conceivable. But don't expect Arab Spring-style protests and Governmental take-downs any time soon. Regardless of how a Government deals with the pandemic, the economic aftermath that ensues may tempt fate a little bit, but even then, people might be more measured.
Don't expect to see Boris Johnson ceremoniously removed from Downing Street or Trump dragged through the streets of Washington following a financial crash. Not even the world of 1929 made this stark leap.
Unrest could occur from a crash/downturn/depression. But not so bad they create the United Soviet Republics of Great Britain or the USSA. In Britain, you might find similar events to the riots of 2011 following the killing of Mark Duggan. America, you may see similar scenes to LA in 1992. France...well...actually France has a terrible track record with both protests and political change so I'll let you read up on that yourself.
Let's just say I personally don't see Macron's head being held aloft the guillotine.
There may be shifts and swings in regions or individual companies but, let's make a few things clear regardless. (Unless something really f*****g drastic happens):
- Putin will be in charge of Russia.
- Jinping will be charge of China.
- Kim Jong-un will be in charge of North Korea
- Australia will change its PM 7 times before Christmas.
Sorry, Australia. Love you really.
Nothing Changes.
Events like this are rare. And, when they occur, they leave a lasting impact. I'm not going to sit here and compare this to the Black Death, the Plague or Spanish Flu, but these things do leave scars. So, inevitably, things are going to change in some way, shape or form. And these changes could be minor and become normal in a decade's time, or they could define this decade. Or even the century.
The 20th Century was defined largely by the two world wars and the rapid advancement of technology. We're currently in the third decade of the century and no-one knows where it'll go from here. Events like 9/11 and the 2008 Financial Crash have certainly been hugely influential in events since, but this is definitely one of the most far-reaching events this century. In the UK, this hasn't happened in any of our lifetimes. The only time that came close maybe have been World War Two. People keep comparing this to a war and, in time, that might be how it's remembered.
Or it could become a meme. One or the other.
Either way, it's highly unlikely that NOTHING will change. Some things will have to. It could be a small change or it could be huge. And that'll vary from person to person.
Perhaps Uncle Eric caught Covid-19 and sadly died, this would be a massive change for you potentially. Or it could lead, indirectly, to a Third World War. We simply don't know. But it's highly unlikely that nothing will change as a result of what happens here.
Because those of us who are alive and able to understand our surroundings now will remember this time. It'll be indelibly marked on our memories. Which could be a good thing going forward. Perhaps this was the start of a great change in human history. Or we'll tell these days in stories to lost younglings around post-apocalyptic campfires. Who knows.
Have I missed anything? Let me know.
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